⚾ Shohei Ohtani Home Run Probability 2025

AI-Powered Prediction & Real-Time Updates for Next Game

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Home Run Probability

📅 2026/8/31(月) 02:40

Analyzing...

Pitcher Data Analysis

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Recent Performance

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Calculating Game Probability

🎯 17 AB per HR

Expected Frequency

⚾ 4.3 Games per HR

Based on 4 AB per game

Per At-Bat

5.8%

(Base: 7.3%)

Relief: 70% RHP, 30% LHP weighted

📊 Game Probability Level

Low

0.0%

High

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Next Game

🆚 Opponent: Detroit Tigers

⚾ Starting Pitcher: Framber ValdezLHP; 8W-9L ERA 4.35 WHIP 1.41 HR/9 0.87

🏟️ Date & Venue: 2026/8/31(月) 02:40; Comerica ParkAWAY

Base Rate (Full Game)

20.5%

Game Factors Adjustment

↓

20.5% → 16.5% (-3.9 points)

Full Game Probability

21.6%

📐 Detailed Calculation Method

1. Base Probability

Career HR rate: 310 HRs ÷ 4218 ABs = 7.3%

2. Pitcher HR Tendency

Framber Valdez allows: 0.9 HR/9 innings

MLB Avg

1.2本/9

Framber Valdez

0.9本/9

→ Impact on Ohtani: ×0.85

3. vs L/R Matchup

vs LHP: Career 7.1% (0.96x of average)

4. Recent Form

Last 10 games: 1 HRs, AVG .150 → Normal

5. Park Factor

Venue: Comerica Park

Neutral park: No adjustment

6. Full Game Probability

Per AB: 5.8%

3 ABs (vs Starter): 1 - (1 - 0.058)³ = 16.5%

4th AB (vs Relief):

・RHP (70%): 4.7% added

・LHP (30%): 5.9% added

Final: 21.6%

📊 Full Game Impact Factors

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vs Left-handed

×1.00

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Pitcher Control

×1.10

❄️

Cold Streak

×0.85

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Last 10 Games

Games: 10

Home Runs: 1

AVG: .150

Hits: 6

HR Rate: 2.5%

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MLB Career Stats

Career HRs: 310

Career ABs: 4,218

Career PAs: 4,906

HR Rate: 7.3%; per At-Bat

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vs LHP/RHP Stats

vs Left-Handed

LHP

HRs: 12

ABs: 170

HR Rate: 7.1%

vs Right-Handed

RHP

HRs: 18

ABs: 318

HR Rate: 5.7%

※ Data from MLB Stats API | Auto-updated every hour

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