⚾ Shohei Ohtani Home Run Probability 2025

AI-Powered Prediction & Real-Time Updates for Next Game

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Home Run Probability

📅 2026/7/18(土) 08:05

Analyzing...

Pitcher Data Analysis

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Recent Performance

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Calculating Game Probability

🎯 10 AB per HR

Expected Frequency

⚾ 2.5 Games per HR

Based on 4 AB per game

Per At-Bat

10.3%

(Base: 7.4%)

Relief: 70% RHP, 30% LHP weighted

📊 Game Probability Level

Low

0.0%

High

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⚾

Next Game

🆚 Opponent: New York Yankees

⚾ Starting Pitcher: TBD

🏟️ Date & Venue: 2026/7/18(土) 08:05; Yankee StadiumAWAY

Base Rate (Full Game)

20.7%

Game Factors Adjustment

↑

20.7% → 27.7% (+7.0 points)

Full Game Probability

32.4%

📐 Detailed Calculation Method

1. Base Probability

Career HR rate: 302 HRs ÷ 4065 ABs = 7.4%

4. Recent Form

Last 10 games: 4 HRs, AVG .263 → Hot ×1.2

5. Park Factor

Venue: Yankee Stadium

Hitter-friendly park: ×1.15

6. Full Game Probability

Per AB: 10.3%

3 ABs (vs Starter): 1 - (1 - 0.103)³ = 27.7%

4th AB (vs Relief):

・RHP (70%): 4.2% added

・LHP (30%): 6.0% added

Final: 32.4%

📊 Full Game Impact Factors

🔥

Hot Streak

×1.20

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Hitter-friendly Park

×1.15

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Last 10 Games

🔥 HOT STREAK

Games: 10

Home Runs: 4

AVG: .263

Hits: 10

HR Rate: 10.5%

🏆

MLB Career Stats

Career HRs: 302

Career ABs: 4,065

Career PAs: 4,735

HR Rate: 7.4%; per At-Bat

📊

vs LHP/RHP Stats

vs Left-Handed

LHP

HRs: 9

ABs: 109

HR Rate: 8.3%

vs Right-Handed

RHP

HRs: 13

ABs: 226

HR Rate: 5.8%

※ Data from MLB Stats API | Auto-updated every hour

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