βΎ Shohei Ohtani Home Run Probability 2025
AI-Powered Prediction & Real-Time Updates for Next Game
π―
Home Run Probability
π 2025/9/20(ε) 11:10
Analyzing...
Pitcher Data Analysis
β
Recent Performance
β
Calculating Game Probability
π― 15 AB per HR
Expected Frequency
βΎ 3.8 Games per HR
Based on 4 AB per game
Per At-Bat
6.6%
(Base: 7.5%)
Relief: 70% RHP, 30% LHP weighted
π Game Probability Level
Low
0.0%
High
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βΎ
Next Game
- π Opponent
- San Francisco Giants
- βΎ Starting Pitcher
- Robbie RayLHP
- 11W-7L ERA 3.50 WHIP 1.20 HR/9 0.97
- ποΈ Date & Venue
- 2025/9/20(ε) 11:10
- Dodger StadiumHOME
Base Rate (Full Game)
20.8%
Game Factors Adjustment
β
20.8% β 18.4% (-2.3 points)
Full Game Probability
25.8%
π Detailed Calculation Method
1. Base Probability
Career HR rate: 276 HRs Γ· 3698 ABs = 7.5%
2. Pitcher HR Tendency
Robbie Ray allows: 1.0 HR/9 innings
MLB Avg
1.2ζ¬/9
Robbie Ray
1.0ζ¬/9
β Impact on Ohtani: Γ0.85
3. vs L/R Matchup
vs LHP: Career 6.1% (0.82x of average)
4. Recent Form
Last 10 games: 3 HRs, AVG .342 β Hot Γ1.2
5. Park Factor
Venue: Dodger Stadium
π Home Game Advantage: Γ1.05
Neutral park: No adjustment
6. Full Game Probability
Per AB: 6.6%
3 ABs (vs Starter): 1 - (1 - 0.066)Β³ = 18.4%
4th AB (vs Relief):
γ»RHP (70%): 8.4% added
γ»LHP (30%): 5.0% added
Final: 25.8%
π Full Game Impact Factors
βΎ
vs Left-handed
Γ0.82
π₯
Hot Streak
Γ1.20
π
Home Game
Γ1.05
π
Last 10 Games
- Games
- 10
- Home Runs
- 3
- AVG
- .342
- Hits
- 13
- HR Rate
- 7.9%
π
MLB Career Stats
- Career HRs
- 276
- Career ABs
- 3,698
- Career PAs
- 4,293
- HR Rate
- 7.5%
- per At-Bat
π
vs LHP/RHP Stats
vs Left-Handed
LHP- HRs
- 13
- ABs
- 212
- HR Rate
- 6.1%
vs Right-Handed
RHP- HRs
- 38
- ABs
- 367
- HR Rate
- 10.4%
β» Data from MLB Stats API | Auto-updated every hour